The claim that Iran will soon possess a missile capable of striking the United States, made by President Trump, has been met with skepticism from U.S. intelligence sources. According to these sources, the claim is not supported by current intelligence reports, which suggest that Iran is still years away from developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). This assessment is based on a 2025 Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report, which indicates that Iran's current satellite-lofting space-launch vehicles (SLVs) may not be sufficient to develop a militarily viable ICBM until 2035. Even with potential technological assistance from China or North Korea, experts estimate that Iran would need up to eight years to achieve ICBM capability. This stands in contrast to Trump's rhetoric, which has raised concerns about the possibility of a U.S. military strike against Iran. The timing of this claim is particularly sensitive, as negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program are ongoing, with no clear signs of a breakthrough. The U.S. intelligence community and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have previously confirmed that Iran shuttered its nuclear weapons development program in 2003. However, recent years have seen Iran enriching uranium, including to near-weapons grade, according to the IAEA. The situation is further complicated by Iran's large ballistic missile force, capable of striking Israel, U.S. bases in the region, and parts of Europe. Despite these capabilities, experts like David Albright caution that Iran is still far from being able to mount a nuclear warhead-carrying re-entry vehicle on a missile. The recent Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian facilities have also significantly damaged Iran's liquid- and solid-fuel ballistic missile production. As the situation remains fluid, the U.S. and Iran's negotiations over the nuclear program will be crucial in determining the future of tensions in the region.
