Bold reality: even heavyweight banks are dialing back crypto optimism as bitcoin heads for a rough patch. Here’s how the scene unfolds, with clear explanations and a practical read for beginners. But first, a quick teaser: the same factors fueling this dip—ETF outflows, macro headwinds, and evolving risk sentiment—could just set the stage for a later rebound if prices find a sturdy bottom.
Standard Chartered has lowered its near-term and full-year price targets for major cryptocurrencies, citing ongoing downside risks. ETF outflows and a sour macro environment are pressuring the market, and the bank now projects bitcoin (BTC) to slip toward around $50,000 in the coming months, with ether (ETH) possibly hitting a bottom near $1,400. At the time of reporting, bitcoin traded around $67,900 and ether around $1,980.
Key voice: Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, pointed out that recent selloffs could extend as many ETF holders register losses and are more prone to reduce exposure rather than “buy the dip.” He suggests a rebound could follow once prices carve out a bottom, potentially through the rest of 2026.
As a result, the bank trimmed its year-end targets: bitcoin to $100,000 (from $150,000), ether to $4,000 (from $7,500), solana to $135 (from $250), BNB Chain to $1,050 (from $1,755), and AVAX to $18 (from $100).
The broader crypto market had weakened sharply in early 2026, with major assets sliding from late-2025 peaks and overall market capitalization falling in recent weeks. Bitcoin had declined roughly 23% year-to-date. The downturn has been accompanied by higher volatility, liquidations of leveraged positions, and a shift toward risk-off sentiment, causing crypto to move in tandem with broader equity market weakness.
Macro pressures— concerns about global growth and the trajectory of interest rates—have nudged investors toward traditional safe havens like gold. Regulatory ambiguity, particularly in the United States, plus liquidity strains at some institutions, have dampened confidence and trading revenues for crypto-exposed firms, contributing to a bearish mood across many tokens.
ETF holders have reduced exposure; Kendrick notes that holdings have fallen by nearly 100,000 BTC from their October 2025 peak. The average ETF purchase price is around $90,000, implying unrealized losses of roughly 25% for many investors.
On the macro front, U.S. data show signs of softening, but markets anticipate no interest-rate cuts before mid-June, when the Fed chair is expected to meet. This stance limits near-term upside for risk assets.
Despite the anticipated capitulation, Standard Chartered believes the current pullback is not as severe as in prior cycles. At its February nadir, bitcoin was about 50% off its October 2025 all-time high, with roughly half of supply still in profit—downward moves that are sharp but not as extreme as in past downturns.
A notable contrast this cycle: there hasn’t been the collapse of major crypto platforms seen in 2022 (Terra/Luna and FTX). Kendrick argues this points to a maturing and more resilient asset class.
Longer-term, the bank’s projections remain intact, with end-2030 targets of $500,000 for bitcoin and $40,000 for ether, supported by ongoing usage trends and structural drivers.
For context, Standard Chartered had already tempered its bullish bitcoin outlook in December prior to this update.
Controversial point to consider: if you observe that crypto’s linkage to traditional markets is strengthening, does that undermine the case for crypto as a distinct risk-off hedge, or could it instead mean crypto is better positioned to absorb macro shocks as part of a diversified portfolio? What’s your take on whether ETF dynamics or regulatory clarity will be the true long-term catalysts for the crypto market—reversal or further depreciation? Share your view in the comments.
