Bold opening hook: Housing markets aren’t a single story—they’re a mosaic, with some of America’s priciest metros pulling back dramatically while others push higher, slowly and selectively.
The landscape of U.S. housing is a study in divergent trends across major markets. Wolf Richter, writing for WOLF STREET, analyzes 33 large and pricey MSAs (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) to show how mid-tier single-family homes, condos, and co-ops have moved since their peaks in 2022–2024. Some markets have seen sizable price declines from those peaks; others have continued to climb, albeit at a far more modest pace than in the previous boom years. The analysis centers on these 33 MSAs, which are among the nation’s most populous and expensive and which at times exceed $300,000 in home prices.
Overall, November data indicate a mixed bag: year-over-year prices fell in 22 of the 33 MSAs, rising in 9, and remaining flat in others. The steepest declines were in Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX (-23.6%), San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA (-10.5%), and Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ (-10.4%). Conversely, the markets posting new highs included Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI (+4.1%), Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN (+3.7%), and New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ (+3.0%).
To be considered part of the 33, an MSA had to be among the largest by population and have at some point recorded home prices at or above $300,000. Some sizable metros—like New Orleans, Memphis, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh—never reached that threshold, so they’re not included here.
Key takeaways show a broad spread in performance:
- Price declines from prior-year highs occurred in 23 of the 33 MSAs. Of those, 17 saw their peaks in 2022, while Atlanta peaked in 2023 and several (including Miami, San Diego, Charlotte, San Jose, and Los Angeles) hit their peaks in 2024.
- Nine MSAs reached new highs in November, led by Milwaukee, Chicago, and New York City.
- The remainder showed a year-over-year drop or modest changes, reflecting a market tilting toward balance after rapid growth in previous years.
Representative yearly changes (highlights):
- Austin, TX: down 23.6%
- San Francisco: down 10.5%
- Phoenix: down 10.4%
- San Antonio: down 8.7%
- Tampa: down 7.7%
- Sacramento: down 7.3%
- Denver: down 7.1%
- Dallas: down 6.8%
- Orlando: down 5.0%
- Miami: down 5.0% (2024 peak)
MSAs hitting new highs year-over-year included Milwaukee (+4.1%), Chicago (+3.7%), New York City (+3.0%), Philadelphia (+2.9%), Kansas City (+2.7%), Minneapolis (+2.0%), Boston (+1.5%), Columbus (+1.5%), and Baltimore (+1.4%).
The remaining MSAs mostly saw declines, with notable examples including Tampa (-6.0%), Austin (-6.0%), Miami (-4.7%), Orlando (-4.4%), Dallas (-4.0%), and San Francisco (-3.2%).[The table below uses the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) as the basis for pricing, drawing from a broad dataset that includes public records, MLS, brokerages, and more.]
Important methodology note: All prices come from Zillow’s seasonally adjusted three-month-average mid-tier ZHVI. The index aggregates data from millions of data points across the United States, including on-market and off-market transactions, and incorporates sales-pairs data.
Why this matters: The broad spread in performance across these 33 markets suggests that national headlines about housing affordability—or a nationwide bubble—oversimplify the reality. While some markets have retraced substantial portions of their prior spikes, others remain elevated and may continue to drift higher, albeit slowly. In the broader context, affordability challenges persist where price gains have far outpaced income growth, fueling ongoing debate about what constitutes a sustainable housing market.
If you’d like, I can tailor this rewrite to a specific audience (homebuyers, investors, policymakers) or adjust the emphasis (affordability, investment risk, or regional differences). Would you prefer a version that foregrounds practical guidance for buyers navigating these markets, or a more analytical piece focusing on macro trends and policy implications?
